Detection weight d_n vs confirmation c_n

Red: v109 with d_n. Green: c_n replaces d_n. Black: true margin. Dashed: target 0.4. Scroll sideways on a phone.

Fixed adaptive factor, cases 1 to 4

Cases 1 to 4, margin estimates with d_n and with c_n

Active adaptive factor, cases 5 to 8

Cases 5 to 8, margins and adaptive factor with d_n and with c_n

Mean error over 8 cases, five scenarios

VersionOriginal+7000+8000+9000IdleAverage
v109: c_n and d_n0.02080.02590.02930.03550.04750.0318
No d_n0.02120.02600.03140.03920.04770.0331
c_n replaces d_n0.02080.02640.02800.03260.04840.0312
No c_n (d_n only)0.06570.03780.09920.10250.08740.0785

Unsafe time is nearly the same for all versions that keep c_n.